Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Cautiously optimistic

Great excitement!  We have a possible or probable date for the resumption of racing in Great Britain: 1st June.  I regard this date as a possible or probable date for the resumption of racing in England; a possible date for the resumption of racing in Wales; and an unlikely date for the resumption of racing in Scotland.  The big potential fly in the ointment, of course, is that I fear that the daily death toll, which has started to decline, will be rising again by the end of the month as a result of the lockdown having started to ease itself.  Whether that rise does start to happen, and what its consequences might be if it does happen, remain to be seen.

We won't get too carried away by the resumption of racing, though.  Not from a participant's point of view anyway.  From the point of view of people who want to observe or bet on races (which is all of us) it is great news.  But if you're wanting to run a horse you shouldn't be holding your breath because I suspect that in the large majority of cases the horse won't actually run for several weeks after the resumption.  We'll have two horses having a gallop here this week (which will be Hidden Pearl and The Simple Truth galloping together tomorrow morning) and I've had a look at the provisional programme for the first week.  There isn't a race for either of them (in the sense that, while there are races for which they are eligible, neither has a suitable option in which she or he would have a realistic chance of getting a run).  And that will be the case for the vast majority of horses trying to run in the first few weeks.

As regards the other horses whom we might want to run reasonably soon, I haven't even wasted time looking.  Emma wanted to have a look to see if there was anything for Hope Is High, but I pointed out that as she shows her best form on turf on flat tracks, there's no point in looking for options until we know which courses will be holding the races.  Ditto for Roy, whose list of suitable courses is even more select (ie Brighton).  But even from what will be the frustrating point of view of trying to run horses who won't get a run, it'll still be great to get the racing programme under way.  The sooner we get the show back on the road, the sooner we collectively can start to work through the backlog of thousands of horses queuing up to run, and the sooner horses can get a run eventually.

And overall, of course, it will just be great to have racing to watch again. It's been good enough to see the French racing on Sky Sports Racing the past three days; it'll be even better to have what from this side of the Channel one might call 'the real thing'.  And it'll be great for the sport's currently even-more-beleaguered-than-usual finances.  It'll be interesting to see how the figures work out once we do start racing.  Obviously there will be zero pounds coming to racecourses from gate-money and catering etc.  And presumably there will be significantly less coming from sponsorship, both because sponsors and their guests won't be allowed to go racing and because, in most cases, sponsors and potential sponsors will have less money to spend.

Furthermore, it will remain the case that there will be a vastly reduced sum coming from picture rights for as long as betting shops are closed.  But betting might be relatively helpful to us.  The days of 85%+ of the nation's betting turnover going on horse-racing seemed to have gone forever, but for the period in which racing is the only sport taking place, it could be some sort of return to the good old days as regards our share of the nation's gambling expenditure.  (Although, of course, one wouldn't want to get too carried away in this respect as we'll still face stiff competition from lotteries, on-line casinos etc.).

There are still a lot of details to be sorted out.  I have just had an email arrive from the BHA outlining a provisional programme of Pattern and listed races for the five days 3rd to 7th June inclusive.  That obviously is only of academic interest to this stable, but it is of interest even so as we'll all enjoy watching the races.  The first thing that strikes one is that the email gives no clue as to which racecourses will be holding these races, nor what the prize money will be.  Those details are obviously fairly important.  To illustrate that one can't take anything for granted, the black-type races set to be run on 5th June are the Abernant Stakes, Brigadier Gerard Stakes, Paradise Stakes, Lingfield Derby Trial, Lingfield Oaks Trial and Coronation Cup.  These races are generally run at Newmarket, Sandown, Ascot, Lingfield, Lingfield and Epsom.  But those courses surely won't all be racing on the one day, will they?  However it works out, though, it'll just be great to have racing back.

1 comment:

neil kearns said...

Seen some reports on the shape of the first months races and to me it all seems a little chaotic

Please correct but am seeing Guineas on first weekend back , ascot in its usual place and Derby first week July and frankly that just all seems a bit rushed

Would have thought those three events being in truth the highlights of the early season could have been better spaced I know we have had nothing for ages and shouldn't crib but I would have liked to see some classic trials then guineas then Derby/Oaks then Ascot at a loss to see any reason why the Royal meeting can't move its not as though there would be any spectators, we have all summer not as though we'll be able to go on holiday

Or am I just an old killjoy ?