Initiative

So much for increased productivity during Lockdown.  I wrote seven chapters of this blog during March, during less than half of which month Great Britain was locked down; during April, a whole month of confinement, I wrote three chapters.  Today is 1st May so I'll start as I mean to (but probably won't) go on, by writing a chapter.  We covered the current ...-gate (Ralphgate?  Rustgate?) earlier this week but I think we can eek a bit more mileage out of the current rumblings (and why not?  Everyone else has done so) so I'll just touch upon a related subject.

As I made clear, I'm happy with the BHA's statements that it has everything in hand for a recommencement of racing as soon as that is practical, permitted and appropriate; and that there will be a balanced programme from the outset in an attempt to provide opportunities for all types of horses.  That's good enough for me.  It seems that some trainers aren't satisfied and want to see the exact details of what the programme will be.  I can't understand that because, even is such information can accurately be provided (which it can't), I don't see that it would be of much use.

Basically, even if we did know exactly what races there will be, that wouldn't help us very much because we still wouldn't know when they will be.  Under normal circumstances, there's plenty to be said for long-range planning (there have been several occasions when I have picked out a race a year in advance, and won it) but such far-sighted exactitude is only really applicable if you know not only what the race is, but when it will be run.  If you don't know when it will be run (and, as yet, it is unknowable when the first post-lockdown races will be run) the idea of trying to train a horse 'to the minute' for it does not really apply. 

Furthermore, we don't even know where the races will be run.  Not every course is going to want to resume racing immediately after lockdown at a time when the conditions imposed for the holding of the meetings will be onerous, when there will be no income from admission/bar and restaurant sales etc., and, probably, very little from sponsorship.  And we'll only have an exact idea of which courses will want to be holding meetings immediately after the resumption once they know exactly what the conditions and obligations for holding racing will actually be.

And, crucially, knowing what, when and where the races will be (one of out three ain't bad, and it's the best we can ask for at the moment) is only useful for firm planning if there's a reasonable chance of your horse getting a run in them. And the one certainty is that, when racing does resume, for the large majority of races, the number of horses eliminated from each race will outnumber the ones who get a run several times over.  It's probably fair to say that, on average, one might be no better than 5/1 against to get into the race one chooses.  So, again, this seeming desire to make firm plans isn't really based on very sound foundations at all.  We still have the better part of a thousand people a day dying of COVID-19, and still people are worrying about not knowing the date of their horse's next race!

Furthermore, very often the most important reason for forward planning is so that one can help the horses' owners to plan ahead, to work out which days they might be able to go to watch their horse run and thus to try to plan a horse's programme around the days on which his owner should be able to attend.  And there is 0% relevance in this area at the moment because it seems almost certain that the meetings which will be held in (at least) the first few weeks will be held 'behind closed doors' with the only people allowed to attend being the people whose physical presence and input is essential for the races to take part.  Which, regretfully, means that, initially anyway, the horses' owners won't be able to be there - which means that it really doesn't matter on what day the race takes place.

While I regard the BHA as my overlord, I don't regard it as my nanny.  I don't expect it to hold my hand and spoon-feed me.  I am happy for it to do everything that it should be doing as regards paving the way back to racing (which it is doing) and I'm happy to stand on my own two feet and use my common sense as regards the rest.  I listen to the news every day, try to keep abreast of the state of the nation, and I think that my educated guess as to when it will be suitable for racing to resume is as good as anyone's.  And then?  Well, I'm happy to take the BHA at its word when it says that there will be options for all types of horses, so I'll work on the assumption that there will be a (semi-)suitable potential opening for each of them within the first week or two; and that we'll probably be eliminated, but the options will keep coming once in a while after that, so once we've started entering we'll keep entering, and we'll get in something eventually.

As regards Group races, a topic which doesn't concern me but is probably on the minds of some/many/all of those currently expressing dissatisfaction, I think that it's fairly straightforward.  Again, it is impossible for us or anyone else at present to know the date on which racing will resume; but we can work on the assumption that most of the Group One races held before that date will be rescheduled and that most of the Group Two, Group Three or Listed races will have been lost, with the exception of a handful of Guineas and Derby/Oaks trials which would be rescheduled, if need be, to ensure that Classic candidates don't have to tackle the greatest test of their lives first up.

And that's about it. There are times when you just have to stand on your own two feet, use your initiative and make the best of a difficult situation.  Which is exactly what it is - for everyone in the world, not just for *me*.