The week ahead

The new week hasn't started too badly.  We've had more rain, of course, but today (Monday) was like a spring day (albeit a short one, obviously, as we approach the winter solstice).  Tomorrow is likely to be the same, but we'd need dozens of spring days at present to get us back to a pleasantly dry environment, and we're probably only likely to get the two, three or four (with probably some rain throw in).  I hope that it isn't too wet in the near future as Das Kapital will go to Newbury on Wednesday for a maiden hurdle, and he seems to find the going tough enough if the ground gets close to heavy.  I would imagine that the principals in the race will be significantly better than he is, so it'll be a tough and tiring race for him if the ground is too wet as he'll find them going a bit quick for him from quite a long way out.

You might wonder why I'm sending him to Newbury for a race in which he'll presumably go off at triple-digit odds.  Well, it's no different to how it is on the Flat: if you're a lower grade horse (which he is - although he won well on the Flat on soft ground at Chepstow in the summer, he was only rated 47 at the time, and is only rated 55 currently, which puts him very much in Class Six) you have to run in three maiden/novice hurdles to become eligible to run in suitable contests, ie handicaps.  And nowadays you'll find that you're outclassed by the best horses in the race in any maiden/novice hurdle whether at what used to be called a Grade One track or at what used to be called 'one of the gaffs'.  In the old days, owners and trainers who have decent horses used not to run them at the minor meetings, but that's no longer the case.

And why Newbury?  If one goes to one of the minor meetings, you probably find that a smaller proportion of your rivals are out of your league (even though that proportion never gets down to zero percent).  So why a Grade One track?  Well, the answer is that I'd rather not, but it's our least unsuitable option.  It would be handy to have run him before Christmas as then I'd be able to give him a let-up over Christmas/New Year.  And this is our least unsuitable option.  The only other options are at Newcastle or Exeter.  Both of those races would involve a round trip of over 500 miles, whereas a round trip to Newbury is less than 300 miles.

You might be surprised that there are only two other options, but I don't want to run him as far as two and a half miles as I don't think he would be strong enough for longer distances yet.  He's finished tired enough over two miles / two and a quarter miles in his two jumps runs so far.  And then there are restrictions on several novice hurdles.  If you have a gelding who has run on the Flat, you'd be surprised how many novice hurdles are off limits. For instance, the one at Ludlow on Wednesday is a 'National Hunt' novice hurdle, which means that horses who have run on the Flat aren't eligible.  The one at Fakenham on Sunday (which would have been ideal, a round trip of only 100 miles, and probably not too much strength in depth in the race) is for fillies and mares only.

After Das Kapital, we'll have a second runner this week (touch wood): Turn Of Phrase at Wolverhampton on Saturday evening.  She came here from the Horses-in-Training Sale at the end of the October.  She ran twice for her previous trainer, James Tate.  She ran adequately to finish midfield over seven furlongs on debut at Redcar in the summer, but ran considerably worse when finishing last over a mile at Chelmsford on her second run, early in September.  James presumably thought that she would benefit from stepping up in distance, but she didn't.  Under the circumstances, starting off at the distance at which she ran her better race makes sense.  We'll hope for a good run there and then work out what to do thereafter.  Like Das Kapital over hurdles, she'll be eligible for more suitable races once she has got this third run out of the way.