Sunday, October 13, 2013


We should have been heading to Goodwood today with Ethics Girl, but the soft ground (which could just as accurately have been described as heavy) put paid to that plan.  She was one of 31 non-runners there, the ground having changed from good.  I saw an incorrect statement on the internet that the ground had changed from 'good to soft, soft in places' to 'soft', which would have been a startling reason for 31 scratchings.  This, of course, wasn't the case: while the ground was good to soft, soft in places in this morning's paper, that paper was published yesterday (ie Saturday) evening, while the declarations for the race were taken at 10 am on Friday, at which point the ground was good.

I actually declared virtually certain that the mare would be a non-runner.  But what else could I do?  We were keen to run, and would have run on good ground.  I'd have been mad not to declare when the ground was good - and, while the forecast made it seem almost certain that the next 52 hours would contain a large amount of rain, one of the principal lessons of this summer has been that weather forecasts, even for the immediate future, are as likely to be hopelessly incorrect as accurate.  Our gullibility in believing weather forecasts has cost us plenty already, and I'd have been very cross if I hadn't declared and the forecast had been wrong.

Anyway for once the forecast was right.  Friday and Sunday (today) were horrible days here (particularly today, as you can see through Frankie's ears in the second paragraph) and it seems that Goodwood had awful weather yesterday and today.  So Ethics Girl, instead of going to Goodwood, schooled over hurdles at the Links today (pictured under Trevor Whelan in the first paragraph, also in horrible weather) in the hope that Wincanton on Thursday will provide a reasonably sound surface.  In the meantime, I hope that the forecast is right for Newcastle: unbelievably it's still good to firm there, but Zarosa (pictured under Terri on Friday) is declared for the meeting on Tuesday in the hope that he forecast rain does indeed wash down on Gosforth Park.  We usually get it wrong when we bank on an accurate weather forecast for her, but there's supposed to be a first time for everything.

1 comment:

neil kearns said...

No thoughts on arg deal ?